Notes on the Market: July 2026

Every week someone asks me a version of the same question: is this a good time? Fair question. Here is what the numbers actually say about our corner of the market as of mid-July, with no spin in either direction.

The national headlines are not our market

If you read the national coverage, you will hear that buyers are finally catching a break. Nationally, that is fair. The country is sitting on about four and a half months of housing supply, list prices have slipped for eight straight months, and roughly one in four sellers cut their asking price this spring.

Northern Virginia is a different animal. We have under two months of supply, homes are averaging about 15 days on market, and in Alexandria the typical sale is still closing slightly over asking. The DC metro median hit $675,000 in June, up almost 4 percent from a year ago and just shy of the record set in May.

So when buyers walk in expecting the national story, the local numbers surprise them. It matters in both directions. Sellers here still have real leverage. Buyers need to come prepared, not discouraged.

Rates: stop waiting for the miracle

The 30-year fixed averaged 6.49 percent in Freddie Mac's July 9 survey. That is a touch below where it sat a year ago, but it has been parked in the mid-6s since spring, and the Fed held steady again in June. Fannie Mae, the Mortgage Bankers Association, and Realtor.com all project rates finishing the year between 6.3 and 6.5. Nobody credible is forecasting a 5 in front of that number this year.

My read is simple. If the payment works at today's rate, buy the house that fits your life and refinance if the chance comes. If the payment only works at a rate that does not exist, that is your answer too, and I will tell you so.

Where the softness actually is

The give in this market is real, but it is concentrated in two places.

• Condos. Condo inventory across Northern Virginia is up 31 to 47 percent over last year, and it is the one segment local forecasters expect to stay roughly flat. For a first-time buyer who wants a foothold in a region where the median detached home runs well past $800,000, this is quietly the best negotiating position around.

• The District itself. DC condo sales are down more than 20 percent from last year and supply there is elevated, while close-in Virginia keeps gaining people.

If you have flexibility on what and where, there are deals to be had. They are just not evenly distributed.

What about the federal job cuts?

We all know someone affected, so I will not wave it away. The region lost roughly 60,000 federal jobs over the past year and a half, the worst run in the country. The flood of panic listings that was supposed to follow never showed up. Inventory rose about 9 percent over last year, prices climbed anyway, and Arlington and Alexandria actually gained population. This market absorbed a hard blow better than the headlines said it would.

Bright MLS does expect the second half of the year to cool as affordability wears on people. I read that as a return to normal seasons, not a warning light.

What I would do

**If you are selling:** price to the comps, not to your neighbor's 2024 story. Well-prepared homes here are still moving in two weeks at or above ask. Overpriced ones are the ones sitting.

**If you are buying:** get the pre-approval done before you fall in love with anything, and look hard at the segments with room in them. Fifteen days on market does not leave time to start your paperwork after the open house.

If you want to know what these numbers mean for your street in particular, reach out. That conversation is free, and it is more useful than any headline.